About 50 million ballots had been cast ahead of Tuesday’s Election Day, and early voting was higher than in the previous midterm cycle across the major Senate battlegrounds. The figures include both mail-in ballots and votes cast in person before Election Day.
Democrats accounted for a larger share of registered voters participating early in several key states. The pattern contrasts with 2024, when Republicans recorded strong early in-person turnout, and gives Democrats some favorable indications in closely contested Senate races.
The level of participation also suggests that turnout could approach the historically high levels recorded in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. In every tracked Senate battleground, the number of early ballots cast had already surpassed the total recorded in 2022. In Maine, South Carolina and Texas, early voting was closer to the levels seen during the 2024 presidential election.
The figures do not predict the final outcome. Millions of voters were still expected to cast ballots on Election Day, which has accounted for roughly half of all votes nationally in recent elections. The significance of the early vote will therefore become clearer only after polls close.
Still, the data provide clues about which voter groups are participating and include several potential warning signs for Republicans, while offering Democrats an advantage in the early turnout picture.
Sources: The New York Times Politics.