Officials and diplomats in the Gulf are increasingly concerned that a new round of military confrontation between Iran, the United States and Israel may be imminent. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the ruler of the United Arab Emirates, said at the Manama Dialogue that Washington and Tehran remained far apart and warned that the situation could take a dangerous turn if their differences were not bridged.
The mood at the regional security conference reflected widespread fears that a fresh conflict could bring intensified Iranian missile and drone attacks against Gulf monarchies. Several diplomats said preparations suggested that another confrontation could begin within days, while Arab governments emphasized that a new escalation had to be avoided.
Signs of a possible confrontation include the deployment of a US carrier strike group to the region, the withdrawal of some American embassy personnel and warnings from US diplomats. Some observers view these measures as an effort to strengthen Washington’s negotiating position, while others say they would also allow the United States to launch military action more quickly.
Diplomatic efforts are continuing. Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Friday in what has been described as a final attempt to prevent a broader war. Discussions reportedly focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade of Iranian ports, with the aim of reducing tensions and creating conditions for renewed negotiations. Gargash praised Qatar’s efforts and said he hoped a path toward a breakthrough could still be found.
Iran has so far shown little willingness to compromise. A Saudi delegation that visited Tehran alongside representatives from Pakistan and Turkey approximately a week earlier reportedly received a difficult reception. Saudi envoys warned that Riyadh would no longer hold back if Iran launched new missile or drone attacks, although there are doubts about whether the deterrent message was effective.
There is broad concern that a new conflict would be more destructive than the fighting in the spring. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty voiced that concern in Manama. Hasan al-Hasan, a Gulf specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, warned that major attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran could prompt Tehran to target the Gulf States in return.
Iranian regime representatives have threatened to destroy data cables and cut Gulf countries off from the internet. According to al-Hasan, such action would affect not only societies but also regional ambitions in artificial intelligence and data connectivity, sectors viewed as important to future cooperation between the Gulf and the United States.
Despite facing the potential consequences of a new attack, Arab governments have limited influence over decisions on war and peace, which depend largely on the US president. Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani expressed that frustration in Manama, saying the Gulf states needed a genuine role in the decision-making process.
Sources: FAZ.