According to the final New York Times/Siena polls conducted before Tuesday's midterm elections, Democrats are leading or tied in seven battleground governor's races. The results show Democratic candidates ahead in Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, while the contests in deep-red Kansas and Texas are effectively tied. These findings suggest that a favorable political environment is lifting Democratic prospects even in areas with strong Republican leanings.
In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott trails his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, by one percentage point, with 47 percent support compared to her 48 percent. If elected, Ms. Hinojosa would become the first Hispanic woman to serve as governor of the state. Similarly, in Kansas, a state President Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, Democratic nominee Cindy Holscher is effectively tied with State Senate President Ty Masterson.
The race in Ohio has taken a deeply negative turn, yet former health director Amy Acton holds a six-point lead over Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy. Mr. Ramaswamy has recently focused his campaign on an explosive advertisement featuring Ms. Acton's estranged mother. Beyond the governor's races, the polls indicate Democratic advantages in Senate contests as well, with leads in five of the seven polled states and narrow edges in Alaska and Iowa.
The survey results reflect a national mood marked by deep frustration over the economy and an unpopular war in Iran. The data was gathered from interviews with voters across the seven states between October 23 and November 1, 2026. Sample sizes ranged from 610 voters in Alaska to 1,215 in Texas, providing a snapshot of voter sentiment just days before the election.
Sources: The New York Times Politics.