High pressure systems have taken control of the United Kingdom's weather patterns, ushering in largely dry and settled autumn conditions for the current week. While days will feature a mix of patchy clouds, sunny spells, and occasional showers, nights are expected to bring frost and fog, particularly across northern and western regions. Temperatures generally remain around or slightly below seasonal norms, with southern England and south Wales feeling notably colder due to brisk easterly winds.
This quiet start to November follows a volatile October characterized by above-average rainfall, warmth, and sunshine according to newly released provisional Met Office statistics. The UK received 13% more rain than typical for the month, with all four nations recording higher-than-average totals. Northern Scotland saw the most significant increase at 31% above the long-term average. The heaviest precipitation occurred during the final third of October as Storms Austen and Boelo swept through the region, making October 24 provisionally the joint-sixth wettest day on record for the UK.
Despite the heavy rain, the Environment Agency noted that England experienced its wettest week in two years, though this was insufficient to alleviate the ongoing drought. Sustained above-average rainfall throughout the winter will be required to counteract the effects of the previous year's record-breaking hot summer. Beyond rainfall, October was also the fifth-sunniest since records began in 1910 and featured mean temperatures 0.9C above average. Shetland recorded its joint-sixth warmest October on record, marking the UK's ninth consecutive month of above-average temperatures.
The shift to calmer weather occurred as the jet stream moved north, allowing high pressure to build and block major rain-bearing systems. However, a brisk easterly breeze is expected to affect southern and eastern areas, with gusts reaching 30-40mph along some coasts and in the Channel Islands. This wind will bring scattered showers, most frequently in East Anglia and south-east England, while northern and western areas remain drier with early fog lifting to reveal sunny spells. Daytime temperatures are forecast to reach between 11C and 13C, though the wind chill may make it feel colder.
Tuesday night is predicted to be cold, with temperatures generally falling between 3C and 7C, potentially dipping below freezing in rural parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern England. Frost and dense fog are most likely in these northern areas, while southern regions may remain too breezy for mist to form. This pattern of overnight frost and daytime sunny spells interspersed with showers is expected to continue through the end of the week, with temperatures dropping by a degree or two in many locations.
Looking further ahead, a relatively weak area of low pressure drifting north from France over the weekend may increase the chance of patchy rain across the UK. While another dry interlude could follow early next week, most computer models suggest high pressure will decline thereafter, allowing Atlantic weather systems to return. This shift would likely bring wetter and windier conditions, though significant uncertainty remains regarding the potential for new storms.
Sources: BBC News UK.