A poll claiming that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) would receive 42% of votes from Bavarians aged 18 to 29 has been questioned by a later analysis from polling institute Forsa. The original estimate, publicized by the Augsburger Allgemeine in September and October, came from Civey and was based on registered and verified internet users, or a sample described as 5,000 people selected to represent Bavaria’s population.
Forsa’s analysis found that the AfD was not the most popular party among voters under 30 nationwide. If a federal election were held now, The Left party would receive 26% of their votes, ahead of the AfD at 23%. The Greens were at 16%, the Social Democrats at 10%, and the CDU/CSU at 9%.
Results from Bavaria’s 2025 federal election also differed from Civey’s estimate: 21.5% of voters aged 18 to 24 chose the Left Party, compared with 18.1% for the AfD. The original report notes AfD results among young voters as high as 44% in Saxony-Anhalt and 37% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The figures do not remove the challenge facing Germany’s mainstream democratic parties. The report argues that younger voters are moving toward both the Left Party and the AfD, and that parties winning only around 9% or 10% of this age group risk losing a generation of voters for the time being.
Sources: FAZ.