Allies of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas are counting on the Bolsonaro movement losing political prominence to clear a path for a possible presidential bid in 2030. Some of his interlocutors believe that, as Jair Bolsonaro and his sons lose influence, de Freitas may no longer need their approval to represent the right in the next presidential election after 2026.

Vice Governor Felicio Ramuth said he expects the Bolsonaro movement to remain part of Brazilian politics but lose prominence in future presidential contests. He compared that possibility with the declining influence of the Workers’ Party after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the risks facing the Brazilian Social Democracy Party.

De Freitas’s independence was not an option in 2026, according to the report, after Bolsonaro chose his son Flávio as the presidential candidate. At the time, the governor was viewed more favorably by financial markets, while the senator was seen as less likely to attract other parties and voters from the right and center.

Recent comments by de Freitas have been interpreted by allies as signs that he is prepared to accept friction with Bolsonaro supporters. On the day Flávio Bolsonaro published a letter described in the report as having a coup-related tone, the governor said in a statement that the election result should be respected and that it was time to look ahead.

In an interview with O Estado de S. Paulo, de Freitas said a national campaign would depend on finishing his second term well. The remarks drew criticism from Bolsonaro supporters, but former first lady and senator-elect Michelle Bolsonaro defended the governor against attacks by allies of Eduardo Bolsonaro in the United States.

São Paulo Mayor Ricardo Nunes, a de Freitas ally who backed Flávio’s candidacy, sought to play down the dispute. He said Michelle Bolsonaro had reported that Jair Bolsonaro had no criticism of de Freitas and instead felt gratitude and recognition, adding that the attacks came from individuals seeking to maintain engagement on social media.

Sources: Folha Poder.