Democrats are looking to make gains in the November 3 Midterm elections, with recent polls favoring them in the fight for control of the House of Representatives. The key threshold is 218 seats. Brooke Butler, political director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), has said the party could win as many as 240 seats, which would end the Republicans’ narrow majority.

The DCCC is directing support to more than 40 candidates running in districts Trump won by at least 16 percentage points in 2024. Its “Red to Blue” program provides those campaigns with staff and funding. The National Republican Congressional Committee has criticized the effort, arguing that Democrats are stretching their resources too thin.

Polling has favored Democrats for months. The party could secure a narrow House majority even without winning any of the handful of districts where surveys show no clear advantage, provided that some districts currently leaning Democratic do not fall to Republicans.

The Senate picture is less straightforward. This year, 35 of the chamber’s 100 seats are up for election: 13 currently held by Democrats and 22 by Republicans. Pollsters consider nine states firmly Democratic and 12 firmly Republican, leaving the contest focused on the remaining states, especially those where the race is close. Democrats have also seen potential opportunities grow in states Trump won decisively in the presidential election two years ago, though a Senate majority is far from assured.

Polymarket’s user forecasts also point to possible Democratic gains, but they reflect the views of people using the betting platform rather than conventional polling. In four closely watched Senate races, the platform’s users favor Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio by nearly 90 percent, the Democratic candidate in Michigan by more than two-thirds, and the Democrat in Alaska by roughly three-quarters. The closest forecast gap is in Maine, where Republican Senator Susan Collins has narrowed the distance to her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson.

Trump’s approval ratings are another concern for Republicans. Just over 37 percent of surveyed Americans approve of his job performance, while 60 percent disapprove. His approval is lower than at any point in his second term and below the roughly 40 percent recorded during his first term.

Trump has backed candidates in primary contests and plans to campaign intensively in the weeks ahead. He has urged supporters to vote as though he himself were on the ballot and promised that, if Republicans retain control of both chambers, the government would pay $5,000 to every adult American.

Some Republicans in competitive states have sought to distance themselves from the president. Collins, who has represented Maine in the Senate for nearly 30 years and presents herself as a moderate, is fighting a close race. She has sometimes voted against her party but has rarely blocked Trump’s agenda. She also missed a party convention in Texas in September, reportedly because of scheduling commitments.

Governorships are also at stake, with elections scheduled in 36 states. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships and Democrats 24. Close races are concentrated in a handful of states. Republicans see an opportunity to take the governorship in Kansas, while Democrats are targeting Republican-held offices in Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio. Republicans also face challenges defending governorships in Florida, Nebraska and Texas, despite those states’ strong Republican leanings.

Sources: FAZ.