Brazil emerged from the presidential election as divided as it was going in, columnist Maria Hermínia Tavares writes. Whether that divide persists will depend in part on the future of the far right and on the actions of the government and democratic forces to protect political normality.
The scale of President Lula’s victory does not change the fact that around 60 million voters backed a candidate with extremist rhetoric, Tavares notes. She says it is too early to know whether Bolsonarism will remain the movement’s defining name after its second defeat, or whether new leaders will reshape it and keep the broader right united in future presidential contests.
Political polarization was evident before the runoff, the columnist argues, with voters’ preferences already concentrated around two ideologically distant camps. She says the campaign sharpened those divisions, particularly as the far right appealed to fears and resentments, prompting its opponent to mobilize voters against the prospect of Bolsonarism returning to the presidency.
Pre-election surveys by Quaest and Ideia, cited by Tavares, found that 12% of respondents identified with Bolsonarism. Between 21% and 26% described themselves as non-Bolsonarist conservatives, while 32% in the Quaest poll and 28% in the Ideia poll identified as independents. About one-third considered themselves part of the pro- or non-PT left.
Tavares also points to polling on issues such as ending the 6x1 work schedule, saying these can attract support across political camps and create opportunities for consensus beyond election-driven polarization.
The movement could shrink if its namesake leaders lose influence, she writes, but that outcome is not assured. The choices of right-wing leaders, including whether they avoid backing figures hostile to democracy, will matter. So will Lula’s ability to develop policies that benefit majorities while fitting the budget, communicate with people who did not vote for him, and understand their concerns.
Sources: Folha Poder.