US presidents have generally faced midterm setbacks: since the end of World War II, the president’s party has lost ground in 18 of 20 midterm elections. Past presidents have responded in different ways, either adapting to the new balance of power in Congress and working with the opposing party, or intensifying their confrontation with it.
The House of Representatives is often the clearest indicator of a midterm shift, since all 435 seats are contested every two years. The Senate changes more gradually, with elections for roughly one-third of its 100 seats at a time. A new opposition party speaker in the House can therefore become a central counterpart to the president.
Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama pursued compromise after midterm losses during their first terms. Following the Republicans’ 1994 gains, Clinton worked with House Majority Leader Newt Gingrich. After the 2010 elections, Obama built a workable relationship with Republican Speaker John Boehner. Both presidents moved toward the political center and went on to win reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.
George W. Bush experienced an unusual midterm victory in 2002, as Americans rallied after the September 11 attacks. But public support for the Iraq war had weakened by the 2006 congressional elections, when Democrats gained control of the House. Bush and the new Democratic speaker, Nancy Pelosi, managed a strained but functional relationship. In 2008, amid war fatigue, Barack Obama defeated Republican John McCain.
The article contrasts those earlier relationships with the hostility between Donald Trump and Pelosi after the 2018 midterms. Trump accused Democrats of election fraud, while Pelosi initiated the first impeachment proceedings against him in 2019. It argues that compromise across party lines has become less likely as more confrontational factions have gained influence among both Republicans and Democrats.
The account also notes that Joe Biden’s 2022 midterm result was unusual: Republicans did not produce a strong House speaker, and Biden did not seek reelection in 2024.
Sources: FAZ.