With the midterm elections set for Nov. 3, Democrats are expressing confidence about capturing the House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority. The political director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Brooke Butler, has set a high bar, saying she expects as many as 240 seats. That would decisively break the Republicans' current majority in the chamber, which is operating with four vacancies.
The Democrats' campaign arm has created a "Red to Blue" program to support more than 40 candidates running in districts that Donald Trump won by at least 16 percentage points over Kamala Harris two years earlier. The National Republican Congressional Committee has dismissed the effort, saying Democrats are overextending their resources.
Polls have for months shown the Democratic Party as the winner of the election. According to the article, Democrats could secure a narrow House majority even if they win none of the handful of districts that pollsters see as toss-ups, provided that no district leaning Democratic flips to the Republicans.
The Senate presents a different picture. Thirty-five of the 100 seats are up this year. Thirteen were previously held by Democrats, while Republicans must defend 22. Polls show nine states as so dominated by Democrats and 12 as so dominated by Republicans that those seats are considered safe. The hardest campaigning is concentrated on the remaining states, especially a handful where polls point to a near tie. The number of states where Trump clearly won the presidency two years ago but a Democratic candidate now appears to have a realistic chance of winning has risen in recent weeks. Democrats hope to take control of the Senate as well, but that is far from certain.
Data from the betting platform Polymarket offers another view. Its users expect Democrats to be able to win a majority. Polymarket reflects the views of its users, a form of swarm intelligence, and its advantage is constant updating. For four states that polling institutes consider especially close, the platform's data is notable: the smallest gap between the Democratic and Republican candidates is in Maine, where Republican Senator Susan Collins has gained ground on Democratic challenger Troy Jackson. In Ohio, nearly 90 percent of Polymarket users expect a victory for Democrat Sherrod Brown; in Michigan, more than two-thirds, and in Alaska, just over three-quarters of users see the Democratic candidate ahead. Whether this reflects collective wisdom or a shared misjudgment will be settled by the count.
A major problem for Republicans is Trump's approval rating. It is currently lower than at any point in his second term and even lower than during his first term. Only just over 37 percent of Americans surveyed approve of Trump's performance, while 60 percent disapprove. During his first term, his approval stood at around 40 percent.
Trump is the defining figure of the Republican Party. He has thrown his weight behind candidates in primary campaigns and intends to campaign intensively in the coming weeks. He has asked his supporters to act as if he were also on the ballot so that they turn out to vote. As motivation, he made an unusual promise: if Republicans defend their majorities in both chambers, the government would pay every adult American $5,000.
Yet in contested states, some Republicans are keeping their distance from Trump to avoid being dragged down by his poor approval ratings. One of them is Susan Collins, who has represented Maine in the Senate for almost 30 years. She has presented herself as a moderate Republican and has sometimes voted against the party line, though she has rarely blocked a Trump initiative. In a tight race in the moderate northeastern state, she cannot afford help from the president. She also stayed away from a party convention in Texas in September, ostensibly for scheduling reasons.
In addition to congressional elections in Washington, many other races are taking place in the states. New governors are being elected in 36 states. Currently, 26 states have a Republican governor and 24 have a Democratic one. Close races exist in only a handful of states; three of them are currently Republican-governed and two Democratic-governed. Republicans are especially hopeful about Kansas, where they have realistic chances of taking a governorship from the Democrats. In the deeply Republican states of Florida, Nebraska and Texas, they can no longer blindly count on defending the highest state office. Democrats, in turn, see chances in five states to take a governorship from a Republican: Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio.
Sources: FAZ.