The United States’ 2026 midterm elections will decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate’s 100 seats. Donald Trump’s presidential term is not due to end until January 2029, but the vote is already prompting Republicans to look toward the next presidential contest. The election’s outcome, the article argues, will mark the start of a post-Trump era regardless: Trump is likely to become a lame duck as potential 2028 candidates begin positioning themselves.
Republicans are widely expected to lose the House, while their Senate majority is also considered vulnerable. The article reports that the party has moved campaign funds away from some traditionally competitive states to defend seats in states it has long regarded as safe. Some Republicans have privately warned of a potentially severe defeat.
Trump has been campaigning heavily, despite some local Republicans preferring that he keep his distance. The article says his rallies have included attacks on political opponents, including his backing for Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy after Ramaswamy’s campaign circulated a video targeting his Democratic opponent. Trump has also drawn attention for repeatedly commenting on the physique of Ohio Republican Jon Husted, who is running for a Senate seat.
The article describes possible efforts to contest or constrain the vote, including a proposed Republican voting-law overhaul that failed to advance in the Senate and restrictions on mail voting that courts have blocked. It also reports warnings from Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries about potential voter suppression. The article says some MAGA figures have urged Trump to consider declaring an emergency or imposing martial law over alleged fraud, but presents these options as unlikely to change the election’s outcome. Trump could still claim fraud if Republicans lose, it says.
A major defeat could also prompt Trump to shift blame through changes to his Cabinet. The article points to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as one possible target, while noting that any change at the Pentagon would come amid tensions over the conflict with Iran. It says the war has contributed to divisions inside MAGA, following earlier discontent over the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case. Commentator Tucker Carlson has expressed the isolationist wing’s opposition to the conflict, arguing that the movement has no future.
Trump’s political influence has relied heavily on his personal appeal, but the article sees no obvious successor with the same ability to hold MAGA together. Vice President J. D. Vance may seek the 2028 nomination, but he has been politically weakened within his own camp by his support for a war he had opposed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio could offer a different direction for the party, although the article says a return to the old internationalist and free-trade Republicanism associated with Ronald Reagan is unlikely.
The piece argues that bringing the movement’s hard-line supporters back into conventional politics will be difficult, especially conspiracy theorists and far-right activists whom Trump helped mobilize. It also notes a growing populist current among Democrats. While the party has focused on the cost of living and efforts to regain working-class voters, its left wing is advocating policies including higher taxes on the wealthy, rent freezes and a higher minimum wage.
That divide could shape the next Congress and the 2028 presidential race. If Democrats win a House majority, Jeffries’s bid to become speaker could depend on support from the Democratic Socialists of America, potentially requiring policy concessions. Both parties are expected to face internal competition over their next presidential nominees, leaving the political center with a potentially crowded contest from moderates and candidates on the populist left.
Sources: FAZ.