Immigration is expected to be a defining axis of the election campaign scheduled for November 29. While the topic is often viewed as advantageous for right-wing parties, critics argue that the left must move beyond defensive arguments that reduce migrants to instrumental functions, such as paying pensions or caring for the elderly. Such rhetoric accepts the premise that immigration is an optional choice that can be accepted or rejected, a narrative that fails to address the underlying demographic shifts transforming European societies.
The core of the issue lies in demographics rather than political preference. Spain's fertility rate hovers around 1.1 children per woman, significantly below the 2.1 required for generational replacement. According to projections published by the National Statistics Institute (INE) in June 2026, the natural population balance will remain negative throughout the forecasted period. Consequently, population growth will depend entirely on immigration. If current trends persist, the proportion of people born in Spain could drop from 79.8% today to 59.6% within fifty years.
The labor market already reflects this structural change. Data from the Active Population Survey indicates that in Catalonia alone, there were 825,100 employed individuals aged 55 or older in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing approximately 21% of the total workforce. A significant portion of this group is expected to retire within the next decade or fifteen years. However, the younger cohorts entering the labor market are smaller than those approaching retirement, a challenge shared by Germany, France, Italy, Portugal, and the rest of Spain.
Contrary to the stereotype that immigrant employment is concentrated exclusively in low-skilled occupations, data from the Observatory of Work and Productive Model shows a dramatic shift. The number of foreign-born workers with higher education degrees rose from 113,656 to 440,671, an increase of 288%. Currently, 37% of employed individuals born abroad hold higher education qualifications, compared to 23.5% in 2005. Conversely, the share of those with only primary or lower education has fallen from 30% to 13%. Across Spain, the proportion of foreign-born workers with university degrees has more than doubled since 2005.
While these figures highlight a diversification of skills, they do not guarantee that all migrants are employed in roles matching their qualifications. Barriers such as the difficulty in homologating foreign degrees can lead to underemployment and wasted talent. Nevertheless, the data reinforces the argument that the demographic transformation is already underway and cannot be reversed by electoral promises to close borders. The European Central Bank has also noted that immigration has driven GDP growth in Europe since 2019, with Spain being a notable beneficiary.
The debate must therefore shift from whether society wants immigration to how it should manage an existing reality. This requires establishing legal and orderly migration channels, planning for labor needs, facilitating the recognition of qualifications, and connecting skills with sectors facing shortages. Furthermore, public policies must address the needs of a growing population, including housing, healthcare, transport, education, and local services. Using immigration as an excuse to avoid these responsibilities or disconnecting its management from them is deemed unsustainable.
Political analysts suggest that the left has a responsibility to elevate the debate by presenting data and offering concrete solutions without fear. Promising to stop immigration without explaining how to manage the retirement of current generations or meet labor demands is described as selling an apparent solution to a real problem. The argument posits that governing involves deciding how to support those already living, working, and studying in the country, rather than treating demographics as a door that can simply be locked.
Sources: elDiario.es.